ABSTRACT
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0.].
ABSTRACT
Reduced GHG and air pollutant emissions during the COVID-19 lockdowns resulted in declines in NO(x)emissions of up to 30%, causing short-term cooling, while similar to 20% SO(2)emissions decline countered this for overall minimal temperature effect. The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NO(x)emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by similar to 20% reduction in global SO(2)emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 +/- 0.005 degrees C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 degrees C by 2050.